Global Macro Overview
In the charts below the following noteworthy events are occurring: Mega-cap gold miner ABX is at 20-year support as well as its 2008 panic lows while its YoY is more negative than it’s ever been at...
View ArticleMarket Nearly Perfectly on Track to Deliver 15% Median, One-Year Gain as...
On August 15 last year in this post we noted that if the market closed that week above 12,982 there was a 91% chance it would be higher one year later, with a median expected gain of 15%. The market...
View ArticleAnalog Update
Haven’t updated analogs in a while so this will be an exhaustive attempt at that. 1) 4th & 5th Consecutive Annual Gain – All ex 1928/1929 – Dow 1A) 4th & 5th Consecutive Annual Gain – 1988/1989...
View ArticleThoughts on the Nikkei in Real Terms
We’ve had some commentary recently about looking at the Nikkei in real terms. By real we meant taking the nominal value of the Nikkei and dividing by 10 Yr UST yields as a proxy for CPI. 10 Yr UST...
View ArticleAnother Analog Framework from Which to Assess the Nikkei’s Rise
As of late, in conjunction with the Nikkei breaking above long-term trend-line resistance at ~14K, we began to suggest in this post that the index could make a sprint up to ~17.5K before peaking and...
View ArticleWhere Might U.S. Equities Finally Encounter a Material Pull-Back?
In the chart below the Dow is plotted on a long-term basis. Note that lines (1) and (2) resistance come into play in the ~16,250-16,500 area. I believe line (1) is the most relevant piece of resistance...
View ArticleAnalog Update
This post is one giant analog dump. As it stands, I continue to see very little worth doing right now across financial markets. This suggests to me markets are in a place that rewards sitting and...
View ArticleDoes Valuation Matter and if so, When from a Historical Cycle Standpoint?
I’ve done a few posts over the past few months on why this level of the Shiller P/E is so important. In a nutshell – this level of valuation historically acts as a switch either turning off more upside...
View ArticleAnatomy of a Crash
Look at the ramps and subsequent crash set-ups in the Dow (20s), Nikkei (80s) and Nasdaq (00s) and how remarkably similar they are. Seriously, the patterns are near identical. Look at the near...
View ArticleCan Markets & Cycles Really be Timed?
I’ll get to the point – this is probably the best market timing tool I have ever seen or developed. More importantly, it’s the simplest. It’s something you can use on your own into perpetuity with a...
View ArticleIs Barron’s Call for a Credit Crisis in China Correct?
Two weeks ago Barron’s made what appeared to be a bold call for a credit crisis in China. They all but suggested that the probability of a Depression-style event was either rising or imminent. But,...
View ArticleAnalog Update
With respect to working the expected near-term correction on the Nikkei into an overall frame-work, the analog below might be a good foot. In it I compare, yet again, the 1988/1989 Dow vs. 2012/2013...
View ArticleCurent Cyclical Rally Entering Rarefied Air, Heightening Chances of Another...
I’ve touched on this statistical subject a few times in the past and wanted to give an update on it. Last July we had this post showing the length of cyclical/secular rallies through history on the...
View ArticleAnalog Update
The SPX has rallied to 1,680 today, reaching our upside price target objective, which was the 61.8% retracement level formed b/t the 8/5 highs and 8/28 lows, respectively. Though it has crept above...
View ArticleAnalog Update
Toward the end of last year and for the entirety of this year, our framework for thinking about 2013 has been as follows: 2012 marked a 4th consecutive annual gain for the market (Dow); historically...
View ArticleFramework for Assessing Progress of Late June’s Pivot Low in Chinese Equities
On 7/2 we had a post suggesting Chinese equities, in contrast to Barron’s call for a renewed crash/credit crisis, were likely nearing a major low. That call was based on a very simple (and thus...
View ArticleRevisiting Last Year’s Analysis that Foresaw the Rally of 2013 and What it...
One of the better pieces of analytical work I’ve done on this site since launching it is this piece from last August. That analysis showed that during 2Q12 the DJIA’s weekly YoY went to >20% in a...
View ArticleAdditional Details to Build on Yesterday’s Cycle Analysis Post
Yesterday we updated a cycle analysis post originally conducted in mid-August 2012. While the original post from mid-August 2012 suggested the DJIA would be up with 91% probability one year forward...
View ArticleMulti-Month Consolidation Patterns Set to End in these Macro Assets
The Japanese Yen is at an important juncture. We’ve been writing about this macro asset as far back as June 2012 and the likelihood that it was entering a period of sustained wekaness (and as a result,...
View ArticleJapan Update
Last week we had a detailed Japan-related update with fresh thoughts on the Yen and Nikkei. We suggested executing a short on the Yen. We withheld conviction on the Nikkei but highlighted the...
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